A new technology appears, and suddenly it is going to change everything by next Tuesday.

A few months later, the excitement fades. People decide it was overhyped.

Then, quietly, the technology keeps improving until it changes far more than anyone originally expected.

That is Amara’s Law:

We overestimate technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long term.

Immediate hype makes transformation seem faster than it usually is. Early disappointment makes long-term change easier to ignore.

Leaders should avoid both extremes.

Do not rebuild the entire organization around every new tool.

But do not dismiss something simply because the first version failed to perform a miracle.

Revolutions are often late.